HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Texas Tech (2020) - NinosCorner Sports | Efficient Sports Analytics...Successful, Relevant Data

Monday, September 28, 2020

HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Texas Tech (2020)

HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Texas Tech (2020)

by Nicholas "NinosCorner" Battle

The Texas Longhorns left Lubbock, Texas with a narrow win of the Texas Tech Red Raiders this past weekend.  Part of me wants to completely bash this team for allowing this game to even get to this point; however, with everything that has transpired over this weekend with other highly ranked Power-5 teams, Longhorn fans should just be glad they were able to leave with a win.  #3 ranked Oklahoma lost to unranked Kansas St.  #6 ranked LSU lost to Mississippi State.  #10 ranked Texas A&M squeaked by Vanderbilt with a 17-12 win.  All-in-all, this has been a crazy couple of weeks of college football.  


What's the cause of these abnormal game outcomes this season?  My simple answer is COVID-19.  College teams did not have the luxury of having spring practice to begin the initial stages of installing the offenses and defenses to be run during the fall season.  Many players opted out in fear of not knowing how this virus could affect them.  In my opinion, it all stems from COVID.  


We can debate why teams are not playing up to standard throughout the first few weeks of the season until the cows come home, but now we must concentrate on how Texas fared analytically against Texas Tech.  The Longhorns trotted out an offense that posted a 55.5 point NCN, which is more than 15 points higher than the NCAA average of 40 points.  Texas Tech compiled a 47.9 NCN-OFF, nearly 8 points higher than the NCAA average.  Texas' offense was not nearly as explosive against Texas Tech as it was against UTEP in the previous game.  Texas only posted 4 explosive plays of 15 yards or more, compared to that of 9 explosive plays for Texas Tech.  Usually, teams that accomplish more explosive plays during the course of a game generally win that contest nearly 85% of the time.  Texas was lucky to come on top with a win during this game.  


As far as the defensive ratings, Texas posted a 45.9 point score, which is slightly above the NCAA average of 45 points.  Texas Tech tallied a 31.4 point score, nearly 14 points less than the NCAA average. With as horrible as Texas played, how could they have even registered a composite score just above the NCAA average?  The answer is that the Texas defense had 3 interceptions and 7 tackles for loss.  Without those turnovers, the Longhorn NCN-DEF score would have been a measly 27 points...which is 18 points less than the NCAA average.  In all seriousness, neither team's defense could stop the opposing offense, evident by the 119 points scored during the contest. 


The quarterback play was essentially equal until the last 3 minutes of the game where Sam Ehlinger led the Longhorns to their epic comeback.  Although it seemed as if Bowman was outplaying Ehlinger down the stretch, the better quarterback eventually rose to the occasion and took over the game.  Those last 2 Texas drives were a thing of beauty, and Longhorn fans are surely thankful that the better quarterback was on their side this past Saturday. 


Nino's Thoughts

  • Chris Ash...welcome to the Big XII.  It a whole other monster...enjoy!
  • I'm still befuddled why Mike Yurcich did not have that same intensity in the 3rd quarter and first part of the 4th quarter that he had on the 2 scoring drives to tie the game and send it to overtime.
  • Alan Bowman, wait until you actually win the game before throwing the horns down.  That aged well. 
  • The Texas offensive line is not a good cohesive unit.  The entire right side of the line needs a complete overhaul.  
  • Speaking of the offensive line, Derek Kerstetter may need to move back to Right Tackle, as we know he can man that position well.  Who starts at Right Guard...Okafor, Johnson, Jones, or Hoofkin?  Better yet, who starts at Center....true freshman Jake Majors (yikes). 
  • It may be time to think about spinning BJ Foster to linebacker, just as Texas did with moving Overshown to the LB position.  Foster loves contact and is one of the better players on defense, but you cannot justify taking Chris Brown off the field at Safety.  
  • Keaontay Ingram ran the ball hard, averaging 7.4 yards/carry...his great play was definitely needed
  • Josh Moore is the Longhorn's #1 receiver and he's one hell of a playmaker. 
  • Brennan Eagles oozes of talent.  If he can put it all together, he will be special. 
  • Schooler is emerging as a definite go-to guy for Ehlinger.  Who would have thought that a wide receiver who stepped on campus just over a week before the season started, would be contributing at this level already.
  • Speaking of wide receivers, Jake Smith, please come back ASAP.  This offense misses a slot threat of his and Whittinington's explosiveness. 
  • For as good as the cornerback play looked against UTEP, they took 2 steps back against Texas Tech. 
  • The Texas defensive line held Tech to 47 yards on 22 caries before Thompson's 75 yard run.  They were a stout group throughout most of the game. 
  • Texas has a lot of work to do in the upcoming weeks as the competition will get tougher.  
  • 2020 is going to be a crazy season...buckle up and enjoy the ride!


NinosCorner Number Definition

The NinosCorner Number (NCN) for the analysis of a team showcases how efficient a team is by calculating the offensive and defensive productivity of a team. These numbers are categorized into two sections…Offense (NCN-OFF) and Defense (NCN-DEF). To calculate the NCN-OFF and NCN-DEF, Offense and Defense Success Rates (OSR and DSR) will be analyzed to illustrate how successful and effective a team is.  OSR and DSR are calculated by accomplishing successful plays.  Successful plays occur when a play gains enough yardage to keep an offense progressing towards a 1st down (50% of yardage on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd/4th down).  A higher number equates to a better overall score. 



NCN-OFF



NCN-DEF



QUARTERBACK COMPARISON




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