HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Iowa State (2019) - NinosCorner™ Sports | Efficient Sports Analytics...Successful, Relevant Data

Monday, November 18, 2019

HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Iowa State (2019)

HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Iowa State (2019)
by Nicholas "NinosCorner" Battle
With Saturday's loss to the Iowa State Cyclones, any pre-season dream the Longhorns may have had are now non existent. After losing to LSU and Oklahoma, Texas was officially eliminated from the College Football Playoffs.  After losing to TCU, the Longhorn quest for the Big XII title became slimmer than many would have expected, needing help from other Big XII teams, while still winning out, to gain the opportunity to be represented in the title game.  After the Longhorn's loss to Iowa State, you can officially book this season as a failure for the Texas football team.

As stated numerous times throughout the year, Head Coach, Tom Herman, needs to do a better job of in-game management.  There have been too many times this year when Texas has given up the opportunity to attempt a field goal, in order to attempt a 4th down conversion.  Texas opted to forgo the 3 point attempt, in lieu of running a predictable 4th down attempt that was the exact same play as the previous 3rd down play.  Texas lost by 2 points.  Do you think those potential 3 points would have been beneficial on Saturday.

The Longhorn's have a huge problem with starting games slow...and Saturday's game was no different.  This offense has too many playmakers for them to only place 134 total yards in the first half, and 327 yards total for the game.

Although the Longhorn offense was not good at all during this contest, the Texas defense has to shoulder much of this blame as well.  Two plays stand out as total game changers from this defense throughout the game.  The first play was Iowa State's touchdown on the first offensive play to start the 2nd half.  This is totally inexcusable for a defense to allow a touchdown immediately after halftime.  The second play that drastically affected the game was the defensive encroachment play on a 4th down in the 4th quarter with roughly 2 minutes left in the game.  This play allowed the Cyclones to run all the time off the clock and kick a game winning field goal.

Throughout my three years of compiling data, there have been only 2 other instances in which my metrics went totally against everything I preach.  The Texas offense and defense BattleStat Numbers (BSNs) bested both of Iowa State's, respectively. Usually, when a team has the higher BSNs for both the offense and defense, they usually win the game 92% of the time.  Stats are one thing, but intangibles are another.  Brock Purdy simply outplayed Sam Ehlinger on Saturday.  His composite offensive success rating (OSR) score was 44%, compared to Ehlinger's 41%. Additionally, Iowa State completed two more explosive plays than Texas, and usually, the team that has at least one more explosive play than their opponent wins the game at a more than 90% rate.

Preseason chatter of the Longhorns possibly competing for a Big XII and National Championship were exactly what it was initially deemed t be...chatter.  Honestly, Texas will be lucky to finish 7-5 this season.  What a dramatic change of circumstances for this Longhorn team. 

BattleStat Number Definition
The BattleStat Number (BSN) for the analysis of a team showcases how efficient a team is by calculating the offensive and defensive productivity of a team. These numbers are categorized into two sections…Offense (BSN-OFF) and Defense (BSN-DEF). To calculate the BSN-OFF and BSN-DEF, Offense and Defense Success Rates (OSR and DSR) will be analyzed to illustrate how successful and effective a team is.  OSR and DSR are calculated by accomplishing successful plays.  Successful plays occur when a play gains enough yardage to keep an offense progressing towards a 1st down (50% of yardage on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd/4th down).  A higher number equates to a better overall score.




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