HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Baylor (2019) - NinosCorner Sports | Efficient Sports Analytics...Successful, Relevant Data

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Baylor (2019)


HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Baylor (2019)
by Nicholas "NinosCorner" Battle
What a drastic turn of events this season has been for the Texas Longhorns.  Expectations were high, with many sports pundits believing Texas would play for the Big XII championship for the second year in a row against Oklahoma.  After last year's Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia, some even thought that Texas would be in strong contention for the College Football Playoffs.

After the Longhorn loss to Oklahoma, resulting in Texas having 2 losses, playoff talks were out the window; however, a Big XII title shot was still in reach.  No one would predict what would happen over the next four games.  Texas went 1-3 during this period, bringing their overall record to 6-5 this season.  The Longhorns are favored by nine points against Texas Tech this upcoming Friday, but I would not be surprised if they lost that game also.

A 6-6 season in year three of a new regime means you have potentially hired the wrong coach.  Hell, even a 7-5 season signifies that.  Blue Blood programs, like Texas, do not require much time to turn things around.  By year three of a new coaching regime, Blue Blood programs are a fine tuned running machine.  Let's take a look at a few.  Alabama went 14-0 with a National Championship to boot in year three of the Saban era.  Urban Meyer went 14-1 and won a  National Championship at Ohio State in year three.  Les Miles went 12-2 and won a National Championship at LSU in his third year.  I'm not saying Herman is on the level of these coaches; however, he has the same, if not more resources to succeed at Texas than all of these coaches listed above.

Since we're talking about Herman...his perceived strength is his offensive identity and game-planning.  After the LSU game, this Longhorn offense has been abysmal.   The play-calling has been extremely predictable, with no creativity or ounce of pace.  Against Baylor, the Texas offense posted a horrid BSN-OFF of 42.2 points, 19 points below Baylor's 61.2 point total.  The Longhorn offense had 2 turnovers, 4 drive halting penalties, and were nearly shut-out of the game (I do not count that garbage 1-second TD at the end of the game). This was supposed to be Herman's strength, but this season has proved otherwise.

For as much flack as the defense has received in the beginning portion of the season, they actually "somewhat" showed up against Baylor in this game.  They posted a 12-point below average 33.1 BSN-DEF; however, they did limit Baylor to just 24 points.  In the scoring-frenzy Big XII, any defense that limits a team to just 24 points should normally win the game.  That was absolutely not the case this past weekend.  The Longhorns still have a glaring weakness on their defense; the inability to create pressure with their defensive line.  Texas only had one sack throughout the entire game, and only an additional tackle for loss throughout the contest.  If you do not win at the lines of scrimmage, you will lose the game...and that's exactly what happened with Texas.  They were whipped on both sides of the ball.  Baylor continuously got to Sam Ehlinger with just three defensive lineman, so the excuses from the coaching staff mean nothing to me at this point.

To say that this season for Texas has been a disappointment is an understatement.  Tom Herman MUST make drastic changes this off-season to assure he gets this ship sailed in the right direction.  This team resembles the Charlie Strong era teams far to close (I can't believe I just typed that).  First off, a new Offensive Coordinator must be hired to revamp this stagnant side of the ball.  This could honestly cure a majority of the team's problems.  Additionally, the defense needs to find a way to get more pressure on the quarterback.  If that means switching to a traditional 4-3 defense instead of the 3-down lineman setup that Texas utilizes now, then that switch needs to happen.

As far as I'm concerned, this Texas season is over.  I don't really care what happens in the Texas Tech game.  I don't really care what happens in the bowl game.  I'm already looking ahead to the offseason to see who Tom Herman will target for potential hires for maybe both the offensive and defensive coordinator positions.  It's sad, but true.  This is what has become of the Texas football team over the last decade.  Wow is all I can say.

BattleStat Number Definition
The BattleStat Number (BSN) for the analysis of a team showcases how efficient a team is by calculating the offensive and defensive productivity of a team. These numbers are categorized into two sections…Offense (BSN-OFF) and Defense (BSN-DEF). To calculate the BSN-OFF and BSN-DEF, Offense and Defense Success Rates (OSR and DSR) will be analyzed to illustrate how successful and effective a team is.  OSR and DSR are calculated by accomplishing successful plays.  Successful plays occur when a play gains enough yardage to keep an offense progressing towards a 1st down (50% of yardage on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd/4th down).  A higher number equates to a better overall score.

BSN-OFF

BSN-DEF

QUARTERBACK COMPARISON

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