HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Oklahoma (2019) - NinosCorner Sports | Efficient Sports Analytics...Successful, Relevant Data

Sunday, October 13, 2019

HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Oklahoma (2019)


HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Oklahoma (2019)
by Nicholas "NinosCorner" Battle
In the weeks leading up to this game, if you would have asked me which team would have been more physical, I would have easily told you that team would have been Texas.  Well, in the words of Lee Corso, "Not So Fast my Friend."  Oklahoma thoroughly dominated both lines of scrimmage against the Longhorns and made it look effortless.

Texas head coach, Tom Herman, was completely out-coached and out-schemed by Sooner coach Lincoln Riley.  Oklahoma seemed to know exactly what plays Texas was running, both offensively and defensively throughout the entire game.  Sooner Defensive Coordinator, Alex Grinch, has completely transformed their defense from Big XII bottom feeders, to the upper echelon of Big XII defenses...in just 6 games.  Before I dive too deep into the metrics, let's show the overall game efficiency ratings.
BattleStat Number Definition
The BattleStat Number (BSN) for the analysis of a team showcases how efficient a team is by calculating the offensive and defensive productivity of a team. These numbers are categorized into two sections…Offense (BSN-OFF) and Defense (BSN-DEF). To calculate the BSN-OFF and BSN-DEF, Offense and Defense Success Rates (OSR and DSR) will be analyzed to illustrate how successful and effective a team is.  OSR and DSR are calculated by accomplishing successful plays.  Successful plays occur when a play gains enough yardage to keep an offense progressing towards a 1st down (50% of yardage on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd/4th down).  A higher number equates to a better overall score.

BSN-OFF

This was the absolute worst I have seen the Texas offense operate since Tom Herman's first year in Austin.  The Longhorns posted a 16.96 BSN-OFF, over 23 points less than the NCAA average.  The offensive line was horrible, allowing 9 sacks and an additional 5 tackles for loss.  The same offensive line committed 5 penalties, that continuously placed the Texas offense in unfavorable starting field position throughout the game.

The Longhorn BSN rates per quarter were 35.4 in the 1st quarter, -3.4 in the 2nd quarter (yes that's a negative), 20.5 in the 3rd quarter, and 31.6 in the 4th quarter.  For all four quarters, the Texas offense was below the NCAA average of 40.0 points.  For the first two quarters, the Longhorn offense only accounted for 83 yards, allowed 4 sacks and 3 tackles for loss; resulting in just 3 points for the offense.

The second half offense for the Longhorns was better than that of the first half; however, it still was not efficient enough for the Texas offense to be effective against the Oklahoma defense.  Although the Longhorn offense posted 227 second half yards, the offensive line still allowed 5 sacks and 2 tackles for loss.  In addition, 4 of the 5 offensive line penalties occurred in the second half.  One bright spot for the Longhorn offense was true freshman running back Roschon Johnson.  He compiled 95 yards rushing on 8 attempts.  This team needs to stop second-guessing itself.  Roschon Johnson is their best running back on the team, and needs to be treated as such.  He should be taking the starting snaps from now on, if I had a vote.
The Oklahoma offense was really, really good.  The Sooner offense posted an overall 61.3 BSN, with a 48.4 1st quarter, a 51.6 2nd quarter, a 51.4 3rd quarter, and a 110.8 4th quarter BSN score.  The Sooner offense was highly efficient, compiling 507 yards of total offense, allowing no sacks, and committing only 1 penalty.  Oklahoma's overall OSR of 46% was 6% higher than the NCAA average; however, their 4th quarter OSR of 84.6% was nearly 45% higher than the NCAA average, propelling the Sooner offense to two additional touchdowns and over 30% of the team's total offense in the respective quarter.

Not only was the Oklahoma offense efficient and effective, they were also extremely explosive.  The Sooner offense recorded 12 explosive plays, at a 26.9 yard per play rate, and accounting for 19% of their total offensive plays.

The key to the Oklahoma offense was their ability to effectively run the ball.  They rushed for 282 yards, at an astounding average of 8.1 yards per carry.  In addition to their outstanding run game, Sooner wide receiver Ceedee Lamb showed everyone exactly why he will be a first round pick in the upcoming 2020 draft.  He was the best player on the field yesterday, and it wasn't even close.
BSN-DEF
The Texas defense posted a 39.4 BSN-DEF, its lowest score since the LSU game.  The composite score is nearly 6 points less than the NCAA average of 45 points. I cannot begin to stress the lack of pass rush this defensive unit brings to the game.  The Longhorns have only registered 7 sacks through 6 games this season, with 3 of those 7 sacks coming against Rice.  The inability to create a consistent pass rush with their defensive linemen is a limiting factor for the Longhorn defense.  Great pass rush sets the tone for the entire defense.  Without it, the linebackers and defensive backs efficiency levels take a slide in productivity. 

Texas posted a 40.5 1st quarter , a 45.3 2nd quarter, a 29.7 3rd quarter, and a 2.9 4th quarter BSN score.  In the first half, the Longhorn defense played a typical Big XII defensive style of "bending" but not "breaking." The Sooner offense was able to move the ball between the 20 yard lines, but when they reached the red zone, the Texas defense came up with multiple stops and turnovers, resulting in Oklahoma scoring just 10 points. 

The second half Texas defense is what was an abomination.  The Longhorns had to have missed at least 25 tackles.  The 4th quarter was the deciding period for this defense.  Texas posted a 7.7% DSR and a 2.9 BSN-DEF, recorded no sacks, registered no tackles for loss, and allowed 2 crucial touchdowns, with the 1st of the two coming immediately after a Texas score that tied the game.  The Longhorns need to shore up their defense if they have any shot of trying to avenge this loss in the Big XII championship game in December.  
The Oklahoma defense was truly amazing.  I must admit, I did not expect their defense to be light years better than last year's abysmal defense.  The Sooners played more physical than the Longhorns. They imposed their will on the Texas offense through all phases of the game.  The Oklahoma defensive line completely dominated the Texas offensive line for the entire game.  Oklahoma recorded 9 sacks, 5 additional tackles for loss, and only allowed 3 touchdowns.  They came ready to play, and their BSN scores reflect that.

Oklahoma recorded a 55.7 BSN-DEF, nearly 11 points higher than the NCAA average.  Additionally, their DSR was 58%, which is 13 percent higher than the NCAA average.  Even when Texas tried to come back and potentially win the game, the Oklahoma defense stood firm and forced 3 punts in the second half.  This defense looked totally legit yesterday, and will not be tested again until they reach the Big XII championship game in December. 
QB COMPARISON
Jalen Hurts outplayed Sam Ehlinger on Saturday.  The difference in the game was Hurts' efficiency and effectiveness in the running game.  Hurts was compiled a 50% rushing OSR, compared to Ehlinger's 36%.  Both were not truly efficient in the passing game, with Hurts posting a 39% score and Ehlinger registering a 36% score; both below the NCAA average of 40%.  Hurts' efficiency in the running game propelled him to amass a higher overall OSR of 43% to Ehlinger's 36%.  
On a per down basis, Hurts passing ability bested Ehlinger on 1st and 4th down.  Hurts recorded a 60% 1st down OSR, compared to Ehlinger's 26%; and a 50% OSR on 4th down, compared to Ehlinger's 0%.  Although Ehlinger posted a higher 2nd down OSR than Hurts (41% vs 40%), they were essentially equal on that down.  As far as 3rd down goes, Ehlinger recorded a 45% passing OSR, compared to Hurts 0%; however, this number is misleading.  Three of those 11 3rd downs eventually led to first downs or touchdowns through the run game or converted 4th down attempts.  
BATTLE'S THOUGHT
I'll have more to elaborate on this on my podcast, but the Texas defense has to shore up their defense in order to have any chance of competing for a Big XII championship.  Also, there is something not right with Sam Ehlinger.  It seemed as though he had plenty very tentatively, and left plenty of opportunities to run the ball when presented the opportunity.  Additionally, the Texas offense has to not be so predictable to start games.  If I could call the upcoming play from my house or local bar, I'm pretty sure the Oklahoma staff could to.  On a last note, this Longhorn staff needs to start Roschon Johnson.  He is, by far, this team's best option at running back.

More anaylyis to follow in my upcoming podcast.

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