HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs TCU (2019) - NinosCorner™ Sports | Efficient Sports Analytics...Successful, Relevant Data

Sunday, October 27, 2019

HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs TCU (2019)

HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs TCU (2019)
by Nicholas "NinosCorner" Battle
I was not expecting Texas to lose against TCU this past Saturday.  After last week's nail-biting win over Kansas, I thought Texas would bounce back and take care of business against TCU, just prior to the Longhorn's bye week.  There will be plenty of blame to go around the 40 acres this week.  Some might say the defensive staff needs to go.  Some will argue that the team is young and full of talent, but are just one year away.  Others will point out that the Longhorns have been hit by the injury bug, especially in the defensive secondary.  

I'll listen to all the theories about why this team is underperforming, but I will not agree with any of them as a whole.  Does the defensive staff need to go?  I not totally sold on the entire staff needing to go; however, the staff does need to scheme better against the teams they face.  Texas is too loaded with talent to let the Big XII's worst statistical quarterback gash them for 37 points.  Is this team young?  Sure, they are, but so are many other teams across the nation.  Texas may be young, but the this is the second and third year of Tom Herman's selected players.  There are no excuses about not having your guys within your system.  Are injuries playing a significant part in this defensive performance?  Maybe...but you can't name any team in the Big XII that would not love to have the Longhorn's second and third string players...not one.  Any team in the conference would love to field Anthony Cook, Demarvion Overshown, and Montrell Estelle as starters in their secondary.  Texas is too talented to complain about injuries.  

For as bad as the defense played, the offense was worse.  Junior Quarterback, Sam Ehlinger, had possibly his worst game as a Longhorn.  his four interceptions were horrible decisions.  The ball should have never left his hand on any of those four passes.  Although Ehlinger played horribly, I cannot place all the blame on him.  This is a total team loss.  Texas cannot depend on Ehlinger to play at an A+ level every week for this team to win.  

I can't believe I'm saying this after game 8 of the season, but this team needs to establish an identity.  Early on, Texas ran the ball really well, especially in the first half; however, the team abandoned the running game in the second half.  From my account, Texas finished with only 29 designed rushing attempts, a far cry from a necessary amount of rushes to establish a balanced offensive attack.  Texas ran the ball just 37% of the time, as opposed to passing the ball 63% of the time.  Although it was an unbalanced and unsuccessful offensive attack, Texas executed the exact reverse of what needed to happen throughout the game. Texas was successful on 48% of their rushing attempts, compared to just 25% of their passing attempts.  The lack of in-game adjustments has plagued this team the last two and a half years, and the lack of adjustments cost Texas the win this weekend.  

With the recent three weeks of bad play from this Texas team, I cannot honestly predict what this team's final record will be.  At season's start, I envisioned this team going 10-2, with a loss to either OU or LSU, and a slip-up within Big XII play.  Now, the Longhorns sit at 5-3, with matchups coming up against Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, and Texas Tech.  If the Texas plays like they did against TCU, they could easily lose the remaining four games unless Herman and company are able to change things around in a hurry.  

BattleStat Number Definition
The BattleStat Number (BSN) for the analysis of a team showcases how efficient a team is by calculating the offensive and defensive productivity of a team. These numbers are categorized into two sections…Offense (BSN-OFF) and Defense (BSN-DEF). To calculate the BSN-OFF and BSN-DEF, Offense and Defense Success Rates (OSR and DSR) will be analyzed to illustrate how successful and effective a team is.  OSR and DSR are calculated by accomplishing successful plays.  Successful plays occur when a play gains enough yardage to keep an offense progressing towards a 1st down (50% of yardage on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd/4th down).  A higher number equates to a better overall score.




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