HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Kansas (2019) - NinosCorner Sports | Efficient Sports Analytics...Successful, Relevant Data

Sunday, October 20, 2019

HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Kansas (2019)

HornsCorner - Game Recap: Texas vs Kansas (2019)
by Nicholas "NinosCorner" Battle
First off, Texas won the game tonight.  If equating this to the military, I'd say that the Longhorns won the battle...but have severely lessened their chances of winning the war; considering the "war" is a trip to the Big XII championship game.  Was this a win?  Technically, yes.  Was this an embarrassing in?  Absolutely!  From top-to-bottom of the Kansas roster, their is only one player I would trade from the Jayhawk roster to the Longhorn roster.  That player is Pooka Williams.  Other than him, if you placed the rosters of each team in front of me, I would pick the Texas players all day, every day, and twice on Sundays.  In saying this, it is an absolute disgrace that Texas needed to accomplish a 1-minute drive at the end of the game to close out this Kansas team.  Texas is the more talented team, without a doubt; however, when games like this occur, you have to look at coaching.  The offense put 50 points on the board.  Sure, they made a few mistakes, but if you can get 50 points on offense every game, you will take that in a heartbeat.  The problem with Texas is their defense.  They are a bad unit..and that clearly falls on the defensive staff, specifically defensive coordinator Todd Orlando.

Let's take a look at the stats...

BattleStat Number Definition
The BattleStat Number (BSN) for the analysis of a team showcases how efficient a team is by calculating the offensive and defensive productivity of a team. These numbers are categorized into two sections…Offense (BSN-OFF) and Defense (BSN-DEF). To calculate the BSN-OFF and BSN-DEF, Offense and Defense Success Rates (OSR and DSR) will be analyzed to illustrate how successful and effective a team is.  OSR and DSR are calculated by accomplishing successful plays.  Successful plays occur when a play gains enough yardage to keep an offense progressing towards a 1st down (50% of yardage on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd/4th down).  A higher number equates to a better overall score.

BSN-OFF

The Texas offense played at a very good level throughout the game.  The team finished with a 57.8 BSN-OFF, nearly 18 points higher than the NCAA average of 40 points.  On a per quarter basis, Texas darted out to a quick 14-point lead and registered a 74.4 1st-quarter BSN-OFF.  The Longhorns followed the 1st-quarter with a 47.4 2nd-quarter BSN, 56.4 3rd-quarter BSN, and a 62.0 4th-quarter BSN composite score to close the game.  

Sam Ehlinger had a game for the ages.  His 490 yards of total offense during this game places him third all-time on the Texas single game total offense yards charts, just 37 yards shy of Jerrod Heard's all-time record of 527 yards.  Ehlinger was monumental in propelling Texas to complete 12 explosive plays (XPs), accounting for 14% of the Longhorn's total offensive plays.  

From my adjusted stats, Texas posted 627 yards of total offense and scored 6 touchdowns.  For as well as the offense played, the one negative aspect concerning their performance were the four turnovers they had.  Ehlinger's interception could have been a game changing play; however, he battled back on the next drive to score a touchdown.  Again, Jake Smith's lost fumble could have lost this game for the team, but Ehlinger's epic performance rallied them to a win.  The two turnovers on downs were bad play calls by the offensive staff.  In my opinion, Sam Ehlinger is one of the best short-yardage runners in college football.  He should have had the ball in his hands at that moment.  
For as great as the Texas offense played, the Kansas offense played better.  They posted a 60.5 point BSN score, more than 20 points higher than the NCAA average.  The Jayhawks posted a 60.2 1st-quarter, a 78.8 2nd-quarter, a 47.1 3rd-quarter, and a 77.0 4th-quarter BSN-OFF score.  Their offense tallied 11 XPs, at a 13% XP rate.  

Kansas quarterback, Carter Stanley, recorded 375 total yards and 4 touchdowns.  Running back Pooka Williams posted 190 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns, at 7.6 yards per attempt.  The Kansas offense played really well...but that seems to be the common theme for any offense that plays against this Texas defense. 

BSN-DEF
The Texas defense played horrible...once again.  They posted a 26.0 point BSN-DEF, exactly 19 points less than the NCAA average of 45 points.  They did not post a BSN-DEF score in any quarter at or below the NCAA average.  The Longhorns did not force any turnovers and only had one sack.  As stated in previous post game analysis, Texas must get better in both categories to continue to win in the Big XII. For the amount of talent Texas has, this is unacceptable.  Take a look at the per quarter BSN-DEF scores for the Texas defense below.  
The Kansas defense played just as poorly as the Texas defense did; however, the main difference with their metrics is that the Jayhawks were able to force four turnovers, register 3 sacks, and an additional three tackles for loss.  Kansas posted a slightly above average 47.6 BSN-DEF, just 2 points higher than the NCAA average.  The Jayhawks per quarter BSN-DEF are listed below.

QB COMPARISON
Although Longhorn fans will be distraught with the performance of this Texas team against Kansas, take a seat and reflect on the performance of Sam Ehlinger, who just registered the third highest offense single game yard total at 490 yards.  Kansas quarterback, Carter Stanley, played outstanding; however, his performance reminded me a lot like Ehlinger's against LSU.  Although his performance was great, his opposition just played a better game.  

Ehlinger bested Stanley in passing, rushing, and overall quarterback efficiency.  He posted a 57% OSR, compared to Stanley's 46% OSR.  Both were above the NCAA average of 40%, but Ehlinger's performance was at a near elite level.  For the Longhorns to continue to win, Ehlinger MUST compete at this level in order to be successful.  Can he keep this up for the remainder of the season?  We shall see.  

BATTLE'S THOUGHTS 
Every weekend, the Texas defense makes their opposing quarterback look like a potential Heisman Trophy candidate; and today was no exception.  It is time to speak on it...the Big XII coaches have officially figured out the Texas defensive scheme initiated by defensive coordinator, Todd Orlando.  As much of a nice guy as Orlando is, and for as much love as head coach Tom Herman shows him, it is officially time for Orlando to depart the program.  

Throughout this season, Texas has posted abysmal defensive numbers.  Through the first seven games of the season, Texas has allowed 28 points per game, 470 yards per game, 9 explosive plays per game, and only totaled 10 sacks throughout the season. These are some of the worst numbers the Texas defense has experienced in the history of the program.  Something needs to shaken up on the defensive side of the ball immediately.  I understand that the defense is experiencing extreme losses in the secondary; however, the overarching problems with this unit have existed for the past two seasons.  This defense will allow any quarterback with an ounce of mobility to gash them for at least 50 yards rushing throughout the games.  Additionally, this unit still cannot tackle well.   The Texas defense leads the country in missed tackles, and were bottom feeders in this category a year ago as well.  This is a systemic problem from the way these players are taught, suggesting these issues fall on coaching. 

At this season's end, Tom Herman has to make a decision...a very hard decision.  He has to bring on another defensive coordinator and let go of his long time friend and associate.  Herman often repeats throughout his press conferences that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, but expecting new results.  Well, it's pretty insane to continue to roll out the same unsuccessful defense, week-in...week-out.  Great leaders have to make hard decisions, even when they do not want to. I believe in Coach Herman, but I will believe in him much more if he does what is necessary for this team and bring along a new defensive mind that will not allow us to remain "insane," as it pertains to stopping opposing offenses.   

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