Scouting Report: Oklahoma State vs Tulsa (2019) - NinosCorner™ Sports | Efficient Sports Analytics...Successful, Relevant Data

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Scouting Report: Oklahoma State vs Tulsa (2019)

Scouting Report:  Oklahoma State vs Tulsa (2019)
by Nicholas "NinosCorner" Battle

Apple Podcast Episode:  HERE
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This coming Saturday, the Texas Longhorns will host the Oklahoma State Cowboys at DKR Stadium.  The Longhorns have lost four straight games to the Cowboys, with the last two contests being extremely close. Will this be the year that Texas overcomes Oklahoma State?  We shall see.

BattleStat Number Definition
The BattleStat Number (BSN) for the analysis of a team showcases how efficient a team is by calculating the offensive and defensive productivity of a team. These numbers are categorized into two sections…Offense (BSN-OFF) and Defense (BSN-DEF). To calculate the BSN-OFF and BSN-DEF, Offense and Defense Success Rates (OSR and DSR) will be analyzed to illustrate how successful and effective a team is.  OSR and DSR are calculated by accomplishing successful plays.  Successful plays occur when a play gains enough yardage to keep an offense progressing towards a 1st down (50% of yardage on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd/4th down).  A higher number equates to a better overall score.

Oklahoma State has an extremely explosive offense, led by junior wide receiver, Tylan Wallace (5 receptions, 118 yards, 1 TD) and sophomore running back, Chuba Hubbard  (32 carries, 256 yards, 3 TDs), who were very effective against Tulsa.  The talented due helped lead Oklahoma State to a 65.7 BSN-OFF, nearly 26 points higher than the NCAA average, as well as assisted the team in completing 7 explosive plays (XPs) of which 5 went for a touchdown.  

The Cowboys posted over 500 yards of offense against Tulsa, and provided a fairly clean pocket for quarterback Spencer Sanders to operate.  Oklahoma State did not give up a sack throughout the entire game.  
The Cowboys posted a 43.1 BSN-DEF composite score throughout the game, nearly 2 points below the NCAA average.  Although the defense registered 3 sacks, they also allowed 6 XPs at an average of 24 yards per XP.  Against an under-matched Tulsa team, Oklahoma State should have imposed their will and dominance at a more frequent rate than what they accomplished this past Saturday. 

The Cowboy's defense was not good at all in the first half, relinquishing 3 touchdowns to Tulsa and posting a 38.9 point and a 10.2 point BSN-DEF in the 1st and 2nd quarters, respectively.  Considering that the average NCAA BSN-DEF score is 40 points, Oklahoma State's defense did not show well in the first half against a Group of 5 conference team.  In fact, at halftime, the Cowboys trailed Tulsa 21-20, a metric I'm sure Mike Gundy is not pleased with.  

Oklahoma State's defense is not an overall good unit at all.  They could not get off the field during the game, allowing Tulsa to remain in striking distance of winning the game for the majority of the contest.  Tulsa was able to complete 85 offensive plays, compared to the Cowboy's 68 plays.  If Oklahoma State has a play differential similar to this amount against Texas, the Cowboy defense will be in for a long night.  
QB Metric
Oklahoma State's quarterback, Spencer Sanders, has seen better days.  This past Saturday, Sanders posted an overall 37% OSR, with a 36% passing OSR and a 38% rushing OSR; all below the 40% NCAA average.  The more alarming statistic concerning Sanders is that he posted a 0% 3rd down passing OSR for the entire game.   He went 0-4 on third downs, failing to register any completions necessary for a 1st down.  
When Oklahoma State's offense is clicking, they are a very difficult team to defend.  Running back, Chuba Hubbard, may be the best running back in the Big XII this year.  Tylan Wallace can arguably be regraded as the best wide receiver in the conference as well.  The Cowboy offensive line has also been solid as well, allowing only 2 sacks over the last 3 games.  This offense has the ability to create a game in which the team who has the ball last will win the game.  

The problem is with the Oklahoma State team is that their defense is not a very good unit.  There's a reason why, through their first 3 games, the Oklahoma opponents averaged 81 plays to the Cowboys 73 plays per game.  This 8-play differential is the equivalent of an extra possession for a Big XII team, and in some cases, it could equate to an extra 2 possessions.  

The Longhorns have an opportunity to open up their Big XII play with a "win" against an opponent in which they have had problems with over the last few years.  If the Texas offense performs at the level they have so far this season, they should win this game; however, never discount the advantages of Oklahoma State having the best offensive skill positions starters in Hubbard and Wallace.  If these two elite athletes can develop a rhythm, stopping the may be a tall order for the Longhorn defense.  

Texas has the clear decided advantage at the quarterback position.  Sam Ehlinger is playing at a level that I believe Spencer Sanders cannot match; therefore, as I always state, if evenly matched, the team with the best quarterback usually wins the game.  However, I believe the Longhorns are a better team and should win this game and  to stop their 4 game losing streak to Oklahoma St.  

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