Game Recap: Texas vs Texas Tech 2018 - NinosCorner™ Sports | Efficient Sports Analytics...Successful, Relevant Data

Monday, November 12, 2018

Game Recap: Texas vs Texas Tech 2018

Game Recap:  Texas vs Texas Tech 2018
By B.R. Battle
BattleStat Number Definition
The BattleStat Number (BSN) for the analysis of a team showcases how efficient a team is by calculating the offensive and defensive productivity of a team. These numbers are categorized into two sections…Offense (BSN-OFF) and Defense (BSN-DEF). To calculate the BSN-OFF and BSN-DEF, Offense and Defense Success Rates (OSR and DSR) will be analyzed to illustrate how successful and effective a team is. A higher number equates to a better overall score.

Both offenses were dynamic in this contest.  Neither could be stopped, as evident with only 4 committed punts throughout the entire game.  With the NCAA average BSN-OFF being 40 points, Texas and Texas Tech both showcased electric offenses to the tune of a 61 point BSN-OFF for the Longhorns and a 53 point total for the Red Raiders.

With the game decided by only one touchdown, the key metric concerning the offenses was the turnover margin.  Texas Tech's offense committed three turnovers and was still able to post an above average BSN-OFF of 53 points...which is a composite score that usually yields a 'W' in the win-loss column.  Without the 3 turnovers, the Red Raiders would have posted, at a minimum, a 63 point BSN-OFF that would have recorded a score greater than the Longhorn's 61 point score.  This is very important due to the team encompassing the higher BSN-OFF score wins the respective game at an 86% rate.

On a per quarter basis, Texas Tech's offense posted a higher Offensive Success Rate (OSR) than the Longhorns in each quarter.  Additionally, they were more successful and efficient on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down compared to Texas.  This metric translated to Tech having a higher BSN-OFF in the 1st and 2nd quarters.  Why not the 3rd and 4th quarters also?  Well, with the Red Raider's having 2 turnovers in the 3rd quarter, Texas was able to capitalize on Tech's mistakes to score 2 touchdowns, resulting in Texas dominating the 3rd quarter.  Both teams did really well in the 4th quarter; however, for as well as Tech did, scoring 3 touchdowns and rallying the Red Raiders to tie the game...the Longhorns were equally as impressive.  Sam Ehlinger's last drive to propel the Longhorn's to their go-ahead score was the difference in posturing Texas to a higher BSN-OFF for the 4th quarter.

Both teams were highly explosive...Texas completing 11 Explosive Plays (XPs) to Tech's 10 XPs...and composing a 14% XP rate for Texas, opposed to Texas Tech's 13% rate.  The Red Raider's had a slightly better yard per XP rate of 26 yards/play to the Longhorn's 22.9 yards/play. All in all, both teams showed that Big XII offenses can light it up and score at will, regardless of the opponents across from them.

Grading Big XII defenses is very hard...I mean very hard.  The wide receiver position in this league is unique and features 12 draftable wide outs for this upcoming draft.  Not only are these wide receivers really good, but their big a physical guys also.  There's a reason why the cornerbacks that come from this league do pretty well in the NFL.  They face these creative offensive schemes week-to-week that are now being implemented into the current NFL playbooks (see Kansas City Chiefs, LA Rams, Philly, etc).

Now that I'm done praising how effective the Big XII offenses are, let me say that defenses are judged on their ability, or lack there of, to make a stop when it counts.  Neither defense did this last night, and for the Longhorn's sake, they better figure out a way to generate a few stops in the upcoming weeks to keep their Big XII title shot odds alive. In regards to Saturday's game, both defenses were essentially equal.  The key difference was the Longhorn's ability to create turnovers...3 to be exact.  Although Texas only scored 6 points off of these turnovers, they were able to keep the ball out of Tech's explosive offense's hands for a total of nearly 11 minutes (10:36 yo be exact).  Kudos to the defense for winning the turnover battle.

With the 3 turnovers, Texas was able to post a 56 point BSN-DEF.  Tech, forcing no turnovers, posted a 37 point BSN-DEF.  As stated earlier, the Longhorn's 3 turnovers were key.  Without them, Texas would have posted an identical 37 point BSN-DEF score to Texas Tech.  As the old saying goes, "if you win the turnover battle, you'll usually win the game."  This was the case for the Longhorn's in this drama-filled win.

The quarterback play was an old-fashioned Big XII shootout.  In all individual quarterback metrics, Duffey outplayed Ehlinger.  His overall success rate, as well as success rates per down, were greater to or equal to Ehlinger's rates.  Jett Duffey played exceptionally well; however, the complaints Longhorn fans had about Ehlinger last year are exactly what caused Tech to lose this game.

Duffey turned the ball over on 3 critical drives in scoring positions for the Red Raider offense.  In this exact game last year, the Longhorns held a 17 point lead until Ehlinger had 2 costly turnovers in the 4th quarter, resulting in a Texas loss over Thanksgiving weekend.  Roles have reversed this year, with Texas having no turnovers this game.  With Sam Ehlinger breaking the Big XII record for consecutive pass plays without an interception, he is directly responsible for the 7 wins this Longhorn team has this year.  Longhorn fans, enjoy what you're seeing from Ehlinger.  He is becoming one truly special player in this tradition-rich program.

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