Game Recap: Texas vs Iowa St 2018 - NinosCorner™ Sports | Efficient Sports Analytics...Successful, Relevant Data

Sunday, November 18, 2018

Game Recap: Texas vs Iowa St 2018

Game Recap:  Texas vs Iowa St 2018
by: B.R. Battle
BattleStat Number Definition
The BattleStat Number (BSN) for the analysis of a team showcases how efficient a team is by calculating the offensive and defensive productivity of a team. These numbers are categorized into two sections…Offense (BSN-OFF) and Defense (BSN-DEF). To calculate the BSN-OFF and BSN-DEF, Offense and Defense Success Rates (OSR and DSR) will be analyzed to illustrate how successful and effective a team is. A higher number equates to a better overall score.

Texas was the more efficient offensive team in this contest. The NCAA average OSR is 40%.  Texas posted a 45% OSR, compared to Iowa St's 32%.  The OSR metric feeds into our custom BSN-OFF number, in which Texas clearly held the advantage throughout the game.  The Longhorns posted a 54 point BSN-OFF, compared to the Cyclones 23 point score. With the NCAA average being 40 points, Texas was clearly above this mark...on its way to winning this game.

The Texas offense was well above the NCAA BSN-OFF average for the first three quarters of the game...posting a 59 point total in the 1st quarter, a 73 point total in the 2nd quarter, and a 60 point total in the 3rd quarter.  The 4th quarter was the only period in which the Longhorns were not above average, and if it were not for a late quarter fumble by running back Daniel Young, Texas would have posted a 49 point total as opposed to the 35 point total the team had.  Additionally, the Texas running game was extremely efficient today.  Whenever the team needed a successful run play, the Longhorn backfield delivered, especially Tre Watson.  He had his best game as a Longhorn, averaging 6.7 yards/carry.

The Iowa St offense came into this game on a 5 game winning streak, averaging more than 400 yards per game and nearly 35 points per game during that stretch.  During Saturday's contest, the Cyclones posted an abysmal 23 point BSN-OFF...only computing a BSN-OFF greater than the NCAA average in the 3rd quarter of the game.  Iowa St was without their star running back, David Montgomery, for the first half of the game.  His absence played a part in the team's lack of offensive productiveness; however, after his return in the second half, the Cyclone offense was still not as effective as they needed to be.  Montgomery's 1st half offense was also nullified, in my opinion, due to Ehlinger's injury in the second half.  With only a 14 point deficit against Texas, without their starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger, the Cyclones had a golden opportunity to make a comeback.  It did not happen and much credit needs to go to that Longhorn defense.

Iowa St quarterback, Brock Purdy, looked like a true freshman on Saturday.  When he was pressured, his throws became erratic and his decision making became poor, as evident with the interception he threw in the 2nd quarter.  Additionally, the Cyclones had another turnover in the 4th quarter through a sack-fumble on the Cyclone backup quarterback, Kyle Kempt.  During these 2 quarters, the Iowa St offense posted a 4 point and -3 point BSN-OFF respectively.

This was a game of total domination from the Texas Longhorns, although the score may not suggest that.  With starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger leaving the game with a shoulder injury after the first half, the Longhorns went towards a more conservative offense when backup Shane Buechele entered the game.  In my opinion, if Ehlinger quarterback's this game in its entirety, Texas runs away with this game with at least another 10 - 14 points.

The Texas defense played extremely well on Saturday, posting a 71 point BSN-DEF throughout the game.  They forced 2 turnovers and committed 6 sacks, to go along with an additional 5 quarterback hurries.  They also added another 3 tackles for loss outside of their team sacks.  One thing that really stood out concerning this defense was their lack of penalties committed throughout this game.  Zero defensive penalties over a 59 play defensive showing was outstanding.

The 2018 Texas freshman class is going to be very special, as evident with key plays committed throughout this game.  B.J Foster, Caden Sterns, and Joseph Ossai made game changing plays yesterday in the Longhorn win.  This should be a very good next 2-3 years from these guys for this team.

Although in a loss, Iowa St's defense did not play bad during this game.  They played in a more "bend-not-break" defensive style on Saturday.  They limited 2 redzone drives to field goal attempts.  They also had 3 sacks, to go along with 4 tackles for loss outside of their sacks.  They, just like the Longhorns, committed no defensive penalties as well.  The main difference between the 2 defenses was Iowa St not being able to get off the field on 3rd downs.  The Cyclones allowed a 71% 3rd down passing success rate, resulting in an overall 52% Longhorn 3rd down success rate.  Iowa St's inability to get off the field in these circumstances cost them the Cyclones an opportunity to win the game.

The Texas quarterbacks clearly outplayed Iowa St's quarterbacks on Saturday.  Ehlinger and Buechele had higher passing and rushing OSRs than Purdy and Kempt.  The Texas duo posted a 47% OSR compared to the Cyclone duo's 23%. Additionally, their success rates per down were higher on each down than the Iowa St quarterback duo.  The key difference in this game was the level of experience the Texas quarterbacks had over their Iowa St counterparts. The mistakes made by Purdy today are the same mistakes Longhorn fans were frustrated with Ehlinger last year during his true freshman campaign.  The future is bright for Iowa St under Purdy; however, Saturday night belonged to the Longhorns.

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