Game Recap: Texas vs Oklahoma St 2018 - NinosCorner Sports | Efficient Sports Analytics...Successful, Relevant Data

Monday, October 29, 2018

Game Recap: Texas vs Oklahoma St 2018

Game Recap:  Texas vs Oklahoma St 2018
by B.R. Battle
BattleStat Number Definition
The BattleStat Number (BSN) for the analysis of a team showcases how efficient a team is by calculating the offensive and defensive productivity of a team. These numbers are categorized into two sections…Offense (BSN-OFF) and Defense (BSN-DEF). To calculate the BSN-OFF and BSN-DEF, Offense and Defense Success Rates (OSR and DSR) will be analyzed to illustrate how successful and effective a team is. A higher number equates to a better overall score.

BSN-OFF by Quarter
Statistically, this was an awkward game to analyze.  If I told you that all things equal...the Texas offense would commit no turnovers, allow zero sacks and only 3 tackles for loss...compared to the Oklahoma St offense also committing zero turnovers, but allowing 3 sacks and 8 tackles for loss. One would assume that Texas would win the game due to not putting their offense in uncompromising positions.  The problem with this assumption is that, although Oklahoma St allowed the Texas defense to have multiple plays behind the line of scrimmage, Oklahoma St tallied more than 110 yards more of total offense than Texas, as well as completing 12 explosive plays to only 7 for Texas.  The great Bill Walsh stated that the a team that completes 2 more explosive plays than its opposition wins the game 86% of the time.  With Oklahoma St nearly doubling the Texas offense explosive play count, Coach Walsh's theory was on full display. 

BSN-DEF by Quarter
The BSN-DEF for Texas and Oklahoma St were far below the NCAA average of 45 points, with Texas managing to post a 35 point score, compared to Oklahoma St's 21 point score.  How was Texas able to post a higher BSN composite score in a defeat?  Well, the DSRs for both teams were nearly identical...46% for Texas compared to 45% for Oklahoma St.  The differentiating factor between the two teams was Oklahoma St's inability to get to Sam Ehlinger.  Other than that, the defensive statistics were a wash with both teams not really having the ability to stop each other's offense. 

QB Comparison
Although I think Sam Ehlinger played a pretty good game on Saturday, Oklahoma St Quarterback, Taylor Cornelius, outplayed the true sophomore.  Cornelius tallied more yards, had a better completion percentage, and posted a better QBR than Ehlinger.  Additionally, on a per down basis, Cornelius outplayed Ehlinger as well.  He posted a better 1st down passing success rate, meaning Cornelius placed his team in more favorable opportunities after 1st down by an 11% margin over Ehlinger.  Even though Ehlinger was more succesful on 2nd downs by a 51% difference, Cornelius was clutch on the more important downs.  He posted 58% and 100% OSRs on 3rd and 4th down, respectively, with 2 of Cornelius' 4 touchdowns resulting from fourth down explosive plays. 

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