2017 Season Review: University of Texas
By B.R. Battle
Photo by Will Gallagher (Inside
Texas)
Although BattleStat Sports
analytics is my primary mission regarding this site, I am also a proud graduate
of The University of Texas. In the words of Rod Babers from 104.9 The
Horn, I'm a "card carrying" member of this University...Lifetime
Longhorn, Texas Ex to be exact.
In saying all of this, I tracked
the efficiency ratings for the Longhorn football team over the course of
2017. When we speak of efficiency, we quantify how successful the offense
and defense of the studied team was using down and yardage scenarios to
calculate offensive and defensive success rates. Additionally, we also calculated explosive
plays to showcase the lethality and instant-strike ability an offense has.
Let’s view how Texas faired this
past season on the offensive side of the ball.
The NCAAF average Offense Success Rate (OSR) is 40%. As you can see from the chart below, Texas
met or exceeded that overall average only 5 times last year. 4 of those 5 games were won by the Longhorns.
On the contrary, the Longhorns possessed an OSR less than 40% 8 times last
year, including the Texas Bowl against the University of Missouri.
On the defensive side of the ball, the
average NCAAF Defense Success Rate (DSR) is 45%. Texas had one outlier the entire season with
the season opener against Maryland. The
Longhorns could not stop anyone on that offense last year; however, from that
point on, the Texas defense was one of the tops in the nation. They posted DSRs of 45% or greater 11 out of
13 times this year. Actually,
their average per game DSR was over 54%.
This defense played well enough all
season, sans the Maryland and possibly the Oklahoma games, to win every contest
on their schedule. They held Oklahoma
St, the nation’s #2 offense averaging 45 points/game, to just 13 points in a
loss. Oklahoma, who was the nations #1
offense, averaging over 45 points as well, was limited to just 29 points in
another loss. USC, the nation’s #13
offense, averaging over 33 points/game, was limited to just 27 points including
overtime, resulting in another loss. And
finally, the SEC’s #1 and nation’s #8 offense in Missouri, was limited to just
16 points…more than half of their yearly average, in a Texas Bowl win for the Longhorns.
Additionally, this upcoming season,
Texas will not be facing the likes of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Mason
Rudolph, or Drew Lock…3 2018 NFL draft picks and a 2019 potential 1st
round draft pick. The defense was lights
out last year against this caliber of opponent and I expect similar results in
2018. A calmer and more steady Sam
Ehlinger, coupled with a Todd Orlando defense should have Texas fans thinking
of at least 9 wins and the possibility of a Big XII championship.
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